An analytical network process model for risks prioritization in megaprojects.
Ogunlana, Stephen O.
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BOATENG, P., CHEN, Z. and OGUNLANA, S. O., 2015. An analytical network process model for risks prioritization in megaprojects. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 33 (8), pp. 1795-1811.
Megaprojects are large, complex, and expensive projects that often involve social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) challenges to project managenment. Despite these challenges, project owners and financiers continue to invest large sums of money in megaprojects that normally run high risks of being over schedule and over budget. While some degree of cost, schedule and quality risks are considered during project planning, the challenge of understanding how risks interactions and impacts on project performance can be modelled analytically still remains. The consequences learnt from past experiences in megaproject practice indicate that there was a lack of analytic tools to effectively manage large risks across project lifecycle and more specifically, there was a lack of understanding on the priorities of all STEEP risks for individual megaprojects. In order to find a solution to tackle this specific technical problem, this research puts forward a new Risk Priority Index (RPI) as an innovative analytical approach to ranking risks for the construction and development of megaprojects. The new method adopts results from an analytic network process (ANP) model, which was built up based on data collected from the Edinburgh Tram Network (ETN) project. It provides an interactive quantitative way for developers to prioritise potential risks across the project supply network so as to initiate in advance mitigation strategies against the consequences of STEEP risks on megaproject performance at the construction phase which can normally cause significant overruns on cost and time.